Global beverage alcohol volume is set to decline further in 2025 than expected, according to the mid-year forecast update issued today by IWSR.
The primary cause for the lowered projection is an unexpected drop in beer volume, driven mostly by economic and political pressures in the US and China.
Previously forecast to decline by -0.2% year-on-year, IWSR now forecasts global beverage alcohol volume to decline during 2025 by -0.4%.
In value terms, IWSR is now forecasting a year-on-year decline for global beverage alcohol of -0.7%. This is down from the previous forecast of -0.5%.
IWSR’s 2026 global beverage alcohol growth forecasts from six months ago (0% in both volume and value terms) are unchanged.
In category terms, IWSR is now forecasting global beer volume to decline in 2025 by -0.2%, global spirits volume to decline by -1.3% and global wine volume to decline by -2.4%. The global volume of Ready to Drink (RTD) beverages is forecast to grow in 2025 by +1.3%.
In the initial 2025 forecast issued in May, beer volume had been expected to grow by +0.2%. Because of beer’s larger serving volumes, changes in beer consumption have a disproportionate effect on total beverage alcohol volume figures.
According to IWSR managing director & president Marten Lodewijks, the biggest factors pulling down beer consumption are economic factors and policy decisions in the US and China.
“Beer consumption is particularly tied to going out to bars and restaurants, but consumers in the US are choosing to stay at home more than expected because of cost-of-living pressures,” Lodewijks says. “When consumers buy alcohol to entertain at home, they make different purchasing decisions, and beer often loses out.
“Another pressure on beer volume in the US has been a marked decline in Mexican beer, which has been a key driver of US beer consumption for many years. Political and economic uncertainty among Hispanic consumers has brought down Mexican beer volumes, further dampening overall beer consumption.”
“In China, consumption has been hit by a government crackdown on luxury goods and a ban on alcohol at public sector events. Weaker than expected economic growth is also reducing spending at bars and restaurants as well as beverage alcohol spend generally. Reflecting this, beer and brandy volume forecasts for China have been adjusted downwards (although other categories remain largely unchanged).”
As the global leader in beverage alcohol data and insights, IWSR has published volume and value forecasts every May for over three decades. Today’s forecast, created in response to client demands in an increasingly uncertain market, is the first mid-year update in the company’s history.
IWSR will now update its forecasts (recently extended from five years to ten years) twice yearly in May and November.
In addition to its first midyear forecast, IWSR also unveiled its new Scenario Planner, the latest addition to its Global Forecast Suite. The Scenario Planner helps IWSR customers assess the potential impacts of future significant macroeconomic events on beverage alcohol performance, with three future-looking scenarios available per market. In addition to IWSR’s base case forecasts, it offers scenarios with macroeconomic situations and assumptions that vary on either side of the base case (significantly more negative or significantly more positive). Like other components of the IWSR Global Forecast Suite, the new Scenario Planner covers thirty-one key markets and has a ten-year horizon.